Monday, July 16, 2018

Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Global and US

US emissions of carbon have been falling, while nations in the Asia-Pacific region have already become the main contributors to the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. These and other conclusions are apparent from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2018), a useful annual compilation of global trends in energy production, consumption, and prices. 

Here's a table from the report on carbon emissions (I clipped out columns showing annual data for the years from 2008-2016). The report is careful to note: "The carbon emissions above reflect only those through consumption of oil, gas and coal for combustion related activities ... This does not allow for any carbon that is sequestered, for other sources of carbon emissions, or for emissions of other greenhouse gases. Our data is therefore not comparable to official national emissions data." But the data does show some central plot-lines in the carbon emissions story.

A few thoughts: 

1) The US has often had the biggest declines in the world in carbon emissions in absolute magnitudes in recent years. Granted, this is in part because the quantity of US carbon emissions is so large that even a small percentage drop is large in absolute size. Still, better down than up. The BP report notes: "This is the ninth time in this century that the US has had the largest decline in emissions in the world. This also was the third consecutive year that emissions in the US declined, though the fall was the smallest over the last three years. ... Carbon emissions from energy use from the US are the lowest since 1992, the year that the UNFCCC came into existence.:

2) Anyone who follows this topic at all knows that China leads the world in carbon emissions. Still, it's striking to me that China accounts for 27.6% of world carbon emissions, compared to 15.2% for the US. On a regional basis, the Asia Pacific region--led by China, India, and Japan, but also with substantial contributions from Indonesia, South Korea, and Australia--by itself accounts for nearly half of global carbon emissions. If you're concerned about carbon emissions, you need to think about proposals that would have strong effects on China and this region. 

3) Total carbon emissions from the three regions of South and Central America, the Middle East, and Africa total 13.8% of the global total, and thus their combined total is less than either the United States or the European/Eurasian economies. However, if the carbon emissions for this group of three regions keeps growing at about 3% per year, while the carbon emissions for the US economy keeps falling at 1% per year, their carbon emissions will outstrip the US in a few years.

4) In an interconnected global economy, it's worth remembering that the country where energy is used doesn't always reflect where the final product is consumed. If China produces something through an energy-intensive process that is later consumed in the US, it counts as energy use in China--but both countries play a role.

For some more US-specific data, here's some data from the Monthly Energy Review (June 2018) published by the US Energy Information Administration. This table shows total carbon emissions for the US, emissions per capita, and emissions relative to GDP, going back to 1950.

A few comments: 

1) US carbon emissions on this measure peaked around 2007, and have generally declined since then.  An underlying pattern here is a reduction in the use of coal and rise in the use of natural gas, along with greater use of renewables. US emissions are now back to the levels from the late 1980s and early 1990s. 

2) Carbon emissions per capita in the US economy have fallen back to the level of the early 1950s. 

3) Carbon emissions relative to GDP produced have been falling pretty steadily for the almost 70 years shown in this data.